Our “summer” weather has certainly been a rollercoaster; rain, drought, torrential rains,
excessive heat, even more excessive humidity and below average temperatures. Just
can’t remember a summer in the past where it’s so hot and humid that you can barely
breath then a day or two later you walk out the door early in the morning to be greeted
by a chill that makes you check to see if you can see your breath. The last couple
months certainly make you wonder what is on the horizon for the next few months. How
much credence do you put in the Farmers’ Almanac?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which began in 1792, has made a name for itself by
providing long-term weather forecasts on an annual basis. It boasts an average
accuracy of about 80% for its weather reports. (It predicted a hot and wet summer for
Northeast Ohio.) Last year, the Almanac reported that its average was lower, coming in
at around 64%. Unfortunately, many weather experts disagree, saying the Almanac’s
weather reports may be no better than chance.
Although, it might be entirely too far out to be taken as a guarantee, the long range
forecasts show that much of Ohio is looking at above-normal temperatures for the
next few months. Precipitation is also above normal, which can result in either rain or
snow, depending on the temperature.
The Almanac isn’t the only weather predictor, here’s what a typical fall season looks like
in our county, according to the National Weather Service:
September: 65.4 degrees
October: 53.7 degrees
November: 42.5 degrees.
That seems a little on the cool side, doesn’t it?
And the National Weather Service predicts normal precipitation in the fall for our area:
September: 3.5 inches
October: 3.34 inches
November: 3.08 inches.
Heck, we’ve had 3 to 5 inches of rain in one week in August!
The Farmers’ Almanac (not to be confused with the OLD Farmers’ Almanac), that’s
been around since 1818, also provides an extended weather forecast. Their
predictions are based on a formula that includes sunspot activity, moon phases and
the position of the planets. They say their predictions are 75% to 80% accurate. They
are predicting a cool wet fall, let’s see if they are right,
What’s your prediction???